About this Show

Charlie Rose

News/Business. (2012) (CC) (Stereo)

NETWORK
PBS

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

SOURCE
Comcast Cable

TUNER
Channel 74 (525 MHz)

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
1920

PIXEL HEIGHT
1080

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Lebanon 9, Assad 9, Us 8, Russia 7, United Nations 5, Kofi Annan 4, Syrians 4, Iraq 4, Geneva 4, China 4, Algeria 3, Hezbollah 3, South Africa 3, Turkey 3, Iran 2, Berlin 2, Jerry Adams 1, Yoz 1, Saddal Hussein 1, Beirut 1,
Borrow a DVD
of this show
  PBS    Charlie Rose    News/Business.   
   (2012)  (CC) (Stereo)  

    November 30, 2012
    12:00 - 12:59pm PST  

12:00pm
captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose.
12:01pm
>> rose: lakhdar brahimi is here n august he replaced kofi annan as u.s. enjoy to syria, one of the most experienced diplomats in the world. he's deeply familiar with arab affairs. during the 198 0s he was undersecretary general of arab league. in the 1990s he served as algeria's foreign minister. after that he was special envoy to afghanistan and then to iraq post saddal hussein. when he became envoy to syria earlier this year he described his mission as quote nearly impossible. he is in new york this week to report to the united nations and security council on that mission and on the situation in syria. i'm pleased to have him back at this table, welcome. >> thank you very much. >> rose: you must be exhausted. >> i'm all right. >> rose: what will you say to the united nations.
12:02pm
>> you know what, i'm going to tell them what i have been saying all along about the situation in syria is extremely bad. and dangerous. and getting worse. until now nobody has found a way of bringing it under control. we know that this is part of the arab spring. we know that change is coming. but as i think you know very well, this arab spring has been surprising all the time, when moving from sun surprise to the other. and of course it doesn't work in the same manner from one country to the other. and in syria it looks to be more difficult than anywhere else.
12:03pm
so until now nobody has found the process, like what was found in tunesia, was found more or less in egypt, in syria we don't have a process yet. >> rose: why not? >> because you know, the government is entrenched in a kind of denial position. saying that this is not the arab spring. this is-- . >> rose: terrorist. >> terrorist and conspiracy. >> rose: right. >> from outside. and of course the opposition think of themselves as a revolution. so they are not talking about the same problem. >> rose: and they've got the problem that syrians are killing syrians which always divides a huge mountain to provide. >> a lot of people are angry with me because i have called it civil war. but i'm afraid that is what it is.
12:04pm
people were angry with me in baghdad when i said the same thing. so yes, it is, it is, it has a lot of what the revolution has but it has also an aspect of civil war. i think that is what is to be said to the security council sill that you have like in any conflict you have circles. the innercircle which is the locals, the region and the international. >> rose: right. >> security council is, has had a lot of difficulty coming together. yet it is probably the easiest ring to start working on. and i'm telling the security council that they have a very, very big responsibility. and they have failed once to
12:05pm
agree on a resolution. they should try again and i think they did succeed. >> why do you think they can succeed, because of the position of russia? and china and the position of the other members of the security council. >> you know, i've talked to all of them. and i was pleasantly surprised that in spite of their, you know, what kofi annan called fingerpointing, they actually have all of them a reasonably responsible attitude. and all they need is really get together and try to find you know, stop pointing their fingers at the other guy. and really work out work out whatever disagreements they
12:06pm
have and the process. >> rose: let's take russia, i have interviewed all the foreign ministers here at this table there a all kinds of issues that divide them. i don't think the russians, you correct me, are committed to assad. >> no, not at all. >> they're not offering-- they are not committed to him they are basically saying we think there has to be some kind of negotiation to solve this thing rather than -- >> what they are saying is that it has to be syrian process, syrian lead process which everybody agrees to. we are against military intervention from outside. and whatever the syrians agree to is welcome to us except perhaps if you have a fundamentalist extremist group coming on top and governing the country. which i don't think is
12:07pm
acceptable to anybody else. >> no one wants that, or someone but maybe iran. >> i done think so. i done think iran wants a fundamentalist sunni-- . >> rose: not sunni. >> state. >> rose: so explain to us because are you there and on the ground talking to people, what is it they fear and are those fears legitimate that people do not know who would come to power if assad leaves power? we'll go back again to the surprising aspect of the arab spring. nobody has predicted anything that has happened in the arab world since almost two years now. since that ton esian young man put himself to fire. so here again i think there is an element of unknown.
12:08pm
this armed opposition which is making a lot of progress in syria, who are they? who are the groups that are actually doing 9 fighting? you know that there are a lot of defecting soldiers but you have also a lot of civilians and also groups who call themselves fundamentalists. and who are not party of this important development that has taken place in doha with the unity of the opposition. >> rose: these are people coming in trying to take advantage of the situation hoping they'll have leverage. >> it's not only foreigners. you have also a lot of syrians. so i think, i believe believe what the russians are saying is who are these people. and who amongst them is going to take over syria. >> rose: aren't the americans and everyone else asking that question? >> i'm sure they are. >> rose: who is going to take over?
12:09pm
>> i'm sure they are. but probably they know a little bit more about the other opposition. and are hoping that this other opposition, the moderate opposition, the secular opposition will have a say and will perhaps have the upper hand. well, as the russians have, they also are having contact with its opposition. they say that they are open to have talk with its everybody. but perhaps they have less contacts with the opposition and then the western countries do. >> are they prepared to listen to from you and other people who are talking with them about how they see the reality on the ground. >> sure. you know i went to moskow and had very, very good discussion with lavrov. and we've talked on the telephone several times. i think our discussions have been civilized and and
12:10pm
constructive. and what i'm telling people now is the security council and-- have to the go to give themselves a chance and talk to one another a little bit more with a little bit more patience, whether or not they are in the marketplace. and i feel certain that they will get some where,nd that will give us and that will give us a very good business to start, you know, real mediation which is not haferinging. >> do they have to be part of the mediation. >> until now syria has still the face of a secular country. there are-- in the there are more alloways with the government. we have got to be extremely
12:11pm
careful. that at the end of the day, especially at the enof this conflict we are not going to have a revenge-seeking opposition targetedding them. that is a very important thing that everybody has got to keep. >> how do you do that? >> it's not easy. i think that if you have a good security council resolution, a good mediation and a cease-fire that is monitored. if you can implement the resolution in a manner that will prevent any civil war post solution. >> is your first objection,
12:12pm
objective a cease-fire? >> that is the most important objective. because you've got to stop this carnage that is -- you have at least 100 people killed every day. >> every dapts. >> from 100 to 200 every day. that is definitely a-- you have to be realistic. you cannot work out a cease-fire in isolation with everything else. it has to be part of the package of what i call the political solution. and then and then are you definitely-- once you have that package, it will be easy to stop the fighting. but once you have those-- stop the fighting you've got to think of the spoilers. and that is why i believe that we need to be ready
12:13pm
with a have strong peacekeeping mission. >> and what would that look look? >> that would look like peacekeeping mission that-- blue helmets, yes. or, and because you have different front its you need a lot of them. so that your cease-fire is observed very closely, especially in areas where you have the risk of this the confrontation after the cease-fire. >> rose: you traveled to the region. first it's specific within syria, then the region that is the wider world. >> what are you hearing from the region? >> you know, the region is committed you have many countries committed to the opposition and you have iran in particular which is committed to the government. but -- >> is niblts committed to
12:14pm
the government other than iran? >> as a government no. >> hezbollah. >> not only hezbollah but in every country su have some people without sympathize with the government. >> is that because they're anti-sunni or what. >> for all sorts of reasons. there turkey, for example, you have people who are alloways who sympathize with the government because they consider it a allowaiy government, in other places people sympathize with the government either because they fear that they are secularists, they fear that in the opposition there are too many fundamentalists, rightly or wrongly, i'm not saying they are right saying that. they would say be careful. support for the government as such is limited because of the arab spring and because of the understanding
12:15pm
now that change in these, in our part of the world is in dispensible and is going to happen whether we like it or not. >> is it possible to find an agreement that allows assad and his followers to stay in the country? >> i very much hope so. >> dow. >> absolutely, yeah, you know, this is-- you know this is what we need. >> this is what we need in our part of the world. what we need is that somebody can leave power and leave, continue to live in his or her country i know that people are demanding accounts ability, and there must be, you know, accountability. but as somebody from the region, this is my, my
12:16pm
personal dream is that you know people can leave the government an stay in country. >> rose: including someone who has taken arms against his own people? >> yeah, that's a very tough question. yeah, so-- i think, i think that if president assad takes a constructionive attitude soon, and contributes to the end of this conflict, and to the protection of all communities including his own, then i think you know, that should be taken into consideration. >> rose: but when you raise that question with the rebels, what do they say? >> i think for the moment they say-- . >> rose: impossible. >> impossible, sure.
12:17pm
>> rose: they want his head. >> yes, they do. and i understand their position. 100%. but my position has to be different. i'm thinking of the future of all syrians. and the future of syria demands that they go back to the incredibly beautiful cohabitation between their communities. >> rose: a secretary law state with all -- >> a secular state with-- you know, i have a lot of friends, i don't know whether they are alloways or christian or anything else. that is the syria we would like to see back. >> rose: how do you get passed that? i mean because that is the issue in terms of finding a negotiation, that is the hangup for the russians. and its at the same time the hangup for the people who are taking up arms to fight
12:18pm
the government. it is when you have this kind of civil war, somebody warrants to win and they want to kick the other guy out. >> sure. you see that you understand. but solutions are about compromises. and then you see what is the greater good. the greater good in syria is for the country to remain united. for the state not to disappear. for people to go back and live together the way they did a long time ago. >> it's hard toast make that argument with people who think they're winning. >> of course. >> even if they are not -- >> to wait it out and they'll get them. even if they are not winning. >> but you know what i am telling the opposition is that i understand fully that every morning you wake up
12:19pm
and say, you know, we don't want assad, we want to try him, we want this. this is understandable. but you-- your responsibility to your country should not stop at that. and they are starting to say, you know, we want to put-- to see this carnage stop. and we want to have democracy, human rights, dignity for our people, and accountability. if you can get that through a a round table rather than its battle field, you cannot possibly say no. and if that, if that requires some concessions, even to people who have done horrible things-- .
12:20pm
>> rose: so how does. >> remember southafter qa, i was there. >> rose: the truth and reconciliation commission. >> sure. desmond tutu. >> rose: right. >> you see, of course we are not going to have south africa there. you don't have mandela, you don't have declercq. but i think there is a lot of lessons there where you know mandela, his people almost denounced him when he started negotiating with the whites. some, some of them told me you know, it's been 27 years in jail, you know, he has gone soft. or has sold out. that is how they looked at him for a little while. and some of them were really on the verge of saying, you know, we don't want to have anything to do with him. but you see what he has done. reconciliation, south africa
12:21pm
for all south africans. i am very, very sorry that he didn't stay a second term. but he decided to leave after one term. >> rose: mandela. >> yeah. >> rose: let me go to assad. so when you talk to him what does he say? >>. >> i think he sells me you're right. >> rose: tells you are you right. >> yes. >> rose: he tells you we have to work this out. >> yeah, we have to work this out. you know, he doesn't-- what i am telling him, you know, speaking about our region in general is that look, i also belong and have been president or prime minister or anything, but i have belonged to the elite in the arab world. >> rose: yes. >> and we've got to recognize that we have messed up that we have disappointed our future.
12:22pm
>> rose: in our choice of government? in our choice of -- >> there 1,000 ways. >> rose: right. >> all in all, our young people have lost faith in us, have lost confidence in us. and now they say, you know, we want to take responsibility for our own future. i mean surely they are entitled to have that. >> rose: that's what the arab spring was about. >> that is what the arab spring is about jz. >> rose: justice and an opportunity to participate in the affairs of their country. >> justice, dignity, and also a vote of no confidence in the present leadership. i think i told you at this table, a year and a half ago, a little bit more, that in fact every government could have led this change. and if they don't, they will be its victims. >> rose: but that's the
12:23pm
lesson. why do they resist leading change when they -- >> because every one thinks that it is true for the other guys but not for me. >> rose: i'm different, i can survive. i don't need to accommodate. >> and i'm better than that. >> rose: qaddafi thought that. >> i suppose the syrians today think that. >> rose: and they think somehow will not meet the fate because i have an army, i have -- >> not only that, but because i'm good, you see. >> rose: they see themselves as good. assad sees himself-- that is what tells you. >> how he sees himself. >> i think so, yes. >> rose: he thinks he's on the side of-- that these people are -- >> these people are money and guns are coming from outside, with a few fighters, to say it's all fonners. now he says yeah there are a few syrians who are traitors. >> rose: he has had defections from his own army, generals, close friends.
12:24pm
>> one very close friend, yeah, sure. >> rose: and does that say anything to him? >> i don't know. i hope so. you know, the other thing that must be saying something to him is that the last couple of weeks the opposition, the armed opposition or armed oppositions have been making quite a little bit of progress. >> rose: where are their arms coming from? >> from all over, i suppose. i really don't know. >> rose: but they are getting more and more? >> it does, you know, we have no means as the united nations we have no means, no intelligence of our own. we have-- but it does seem so, yes. >> rose: and the chemical weapons? >> you know, that, you know, i know only what "the new york times" has written. >> rose: but are you in the same place i am. >> yeah. you probably know a little
12:25pm
bit more about it than i do. >> rose: i talked intelligence but-- but it's a big concern for the west. >> it's-- it's a very big concern. >> rose: it's a very big concern for the syrians. because you know -- >> he'll use them. >> i hope not. they said they will not use it. >> and the russians, i mean as you mentioned, here at this table they said we have told them they cannot do that. >> you know this very said they will not use them. i don't know many syrians who are terribly concerned about that. >> rose: really? >> why? >> because i think they probably know that, you know, it's unimaginable, really, that anybody would use chemical weapons against their people. >> rose: really? >> yeah,. >> you're too experienced to not know -- >> yes, i remember. but one hopes that, youee
12:26pm
i'm naive enough to think that is an exception that will not repeat. >> rose: you have to be an optimist to do what you do, do you not. >> sure, yeah, i suppose to,. >> rose: that's probably a quality that a negotiator needs, to believe that the undoable can be done, and to believe that-- the unthinkable can be thought. >> it has been done several times. >> rose: i mean look at northern ireland today. >> yeah. >> rose: and they were in the government together. >> sure, as a matter of fact jerry adams is going around telling people how to end the conflict. >> rose: and a former head of the military wing of the ira are one of their principal figures is to you being honored by the establishment in britain. >> yeah, sure. >> rose: so it's possible. >> it is, absolutely possible. >> rose: never give up. >> when i went to lebanon in '88 everybody say poor man, what are you going to do there. >> rose: why are you here. >> yeah,.
12:27pm
>> rose: but look at what happened in lebanon. >> you know, we did the agreement. we ended the fighting. and you know, the interesting thing is that now 23 years later, almost every day you have a lebanese who says life is very bad. and another one who says we cannot do without him, until now so it wasn't that bad an agreement rdz what dot iranians want? >> you know what they say is that they want a peaceful settlement. this is what they say. they want negotiation between the government and the op zultion. i suppose you know they have a glad relationship with syria-- a good relationship with syria. and through syria they have influence in lebanon. >> rose: syria was a passage for them to send weapons to lebanon.
12:28pm
>> i suppose it still is. >> rose: yeah, exactly. >> so they would like to keep some kind of-- . >> rose: to support hezbollah. >> to support hezbollah. >> rose: but when you sit down with the military and you say to them, i just came from the president's office and i spoke to him. he's ready to negotiate with you. he wants all, everything on the table. >> uh-huh. >> rose: and he doesn't want to leave the country. he's not going to accept asylum. he's to the going to give up the fight. he wants to negotiate, what do they say? >> you know, unfortunately, i'm not yet in a position to tell them exactly that. because what does he-- . >> rose: he hasn't said that to you. >> not exactly. what he's saying is that yes, you know, everybody's welcome. but the impression i have is that he still thinks of himself as the government and people come and talk to him as the government. and then you know they will find an agreement within 9
12:29pm
present dispensation. whereas i think what the other side expects is that you know, we-- you have to accept you president bashar, you have to accept at least, you know, notionally that this regime is finished. and perhaps we could talk to you if are you discussing the building up of a new regime that was why i was telling you they are talking about two different scenarios. >> right. >> they are in two different narratives. >> rose: first of all you can't get assad to open to the idea that he has to give poup we are period or not. >> to be fair, you know, when i discussed these things he doesn't say, you know, i must remain here and i must be president, no, he doesn't. it's not-- . >> rose: well then what does he say? i have to be part of a process or does he say they have to come negotiate with me because i'm the
12:30pm
government in power. >> it's not very-- it's not very, very clear but certainly you know i think he does realize that things are changing and changing very fast. >> rose: so therefore when he realizes that, not only because there seems to be more agreement within the rebels, coalition building, right. >> uh-huh. >> rose: and some military games, i mean he is a rational man that can see that happening and in front of his face. >> i think he's a rational man but i haven't seen them, you know, i think i saw him almost a month ago. i haven't seen him since then i haven't seen him after the doha agreement and also these last developments of the last few days. we have talked to his ministers and so on but not to him. >> rose: who's advising him? >> i don't know.
12:31pm
the system in syria is not, i mean you have two or three levels. you have the technical ministers who are doing their job as minister of communications or agriculture or whatever. and then you have the political system, political system you have the visible which is the center committee of the ba'ath party and so on. and then you have an inner group who, the composition of which is not very clear. it's these people, this inner group that makes decisions. >> rose: how many in that group, you think? >> i have no idea. >> rose: they are the same people that have been ruling syria. >> oh, yeah, sure some since the days of the fatahz but
12:32pm
some changes because the brother-in-law was killed. >> yeah. and a few others. >> rose: and a few others. is milt tear victory by the rebel forces a real possibility as they gain strength if assad did nothing-- if nothing stops the violence so you will have a dramatic uptick in the violence. but until the government loses. >> that is happening. violence is shall did -- you know this is what i think i started by saying that the situation is extremely bad and getting worse. the country is being destroyed. the country is being destroyed. look, when i took this job in august, the people were speaking about 200,000 refugees. and maybe it was a little
12:33pm
bit exaggerated. and maybe one million decision placed people inside the country needed help. now three or four months later you are talking about 450,000 refugees, going up to 700 or 700-- 750,000 in january or february. and four million people inside syria who need help. >> food and shelter. >> and also the destruction. some areas look like beirut in the 80s. and a friend of mine told me no, some areas look like berlin in 1945. so the country is being destroyed. so what i am telling people is look, what the hell are you going to do with a military victory if the country is gone. and especially if the fabric of society is destroyed.
12:34pm
what are you going to do. >> rose: world war ii ended when hitler committed suicide realizing all was lost and that a allies were at the gates of berlin. >> there are no allies at the gate of syria. >> rose: if there were, if there were, if the arab world said we cannot let this happen because -- >> they are say tag that. >> rose: they are saying that. >> yeah. but they don't have the means of doing it. >> rose: what is the means. >> the means is military, political unity, political influence, relationship with the syrian parties. that's not there, sigh. you know, i am-- you know, i work seven years in at rab league and i have lots of friends. i there from there. but we have got to say that we do not have the means of doing-- that is why we need the security council and the international community. and the large peace-keeping mission to implement the
12:35pm
agreement that is put together. >> rose: there are some people say that-- to certain nations history will judge you bad if you let the security council division stop you from the destruction of a country. >> yeah. >> rose: if you allow that to be an impediment to stopping the killing and the destruction of a country than history -- >> are you talking about the security. >> yes. >> you know, you put it much better than i can. that is exactly it. you are the only body that can put the political solution in motion. so for the moment it's all blocked. all there is is fighting, all right. so whether you are supporting one side or the other, you are really helping destroy the country.
12:36pm
right? the only body that can start a different process is the security council. >> rose: so tell me what you would like, notwithstanding the conflict within. >> uh-huh. >> rose: what would you like to come out of the united nations? what kind of action, commitment -- >> geneva. in geneva on the 30th of june kofi annan realized an incredible tour de force. he brought the p-5 and most countries around syria together. and they made, they agreed on a text. not that text was a compromise. therefore there are lots of things that are, you know, subject to interpretation. but it's a very, very good text. if you go back to that text and translate it into a resolution, then we can take
12:37pm
it to the parties and say let us start now putting together a peaceful process that is going tond the conflict. so geneva contains a lot, perhaps most, some people say all the building blocks that you need to have a-- they tried once and they failed. immediately after geneva. >> rose: right. >> they tried, you know, they had a discussion in security colin. they didn't agree and stopped it there. you failed once, please, try again. >> rose: send and that is what you will be saying to the united nation. you fail oncement you knows what's necessary, try again. >> in exactly those words. in exactly those words. are 9 appeal of last resort. look at what is happening.
12:38pm
do you know that there is a church in humanas-- hamas built in the year 59. 59, that has been-- . >> rose: 59. >> 59 bc, that has been destroyed or damaged seriously, i don't know exactly what. two mosques, one in homs. >> rose: two mosques. >> two mosques, also of the beginning of islam. the market in-- the covered market in a legal-- aleppo is a part of the heritage has been burned. so the country is being destroyed. i didn't realize that how rich the past of syria is. the looting of
12:39pm
archaeological things is taking place. not as bad as it happened in iraq but bad enough already. so this is what is happening. are you going to have, what i am saying is the choice really now is between a failed state or a political solution. there is no third option. >> rose: but is it primarily russia. >> no. >> rose: which has to change. >> no, no, i think everybody has to make an effort. it's, you know, this is you know what kofi annan called fingerpointing. that's not what you want. russia is a responsible member, permanent member, so is china. you've got to reach out to
12:40pm
them and you know try again with them. >> rose: but are you saying-- but you are saying the government that has to be persuaded are in moskow and beijing. >> no, they are everywhere. they are in all 15 capitals. but of course more in the five capital its of the permanent members. you know from my position i cannot say you know, russia or china or are the bad guys. i think that-- but is that because you believe that or because -- >> i believe that. >> it's necessary for to you take that position as a negotiator. >> no, i have talked to them. i have talked to them as i have talked to the americans and everybody else. and i think that there are differences, you know, there are maybe mistakes that have been done by x, yoz or by
12:41pm
everyone. but it is not the time for fingerpointing. it is a time for everybody to come back. we invite everybody to norblt we invite everybody. we tell the syrians, please have a peaceful solution. how about having a peaceful solution at security council. >> rose: you think people persuadable other than at the end of a barrel. >> look. when you are, when you take the responsibility of taking a gun to kill your neighbor and perhaps later on your brother, it's because you think you have no other way of doing it. >> rose: so you don't expect a person who has gone to
12:42pm
that extreme to immediately tell you yeah, are you right, let's go to the negotiating table. but you've got to keep telling them. i understand your anger. i understand what took you to where you are now. but think also of a lot of other things. and perhaps you can achieve if not all, most of what you want without killing your neighbor and your brother. >> rose: when you bring to the table of all of them, whether they are the immediate combatants or a wider circle from the region and to the united nations, and you talk to them about this and talk to them about what's necessary, what historical argument and precedent do you use? >> south africa. >> do you use iraq? >> where sunni and shi'a
12:43pm
went at each other's throat. >> iraq, you put iraq as the things not to do. >> rose: how bad it will be. >> yeah, sure, yeah. >> i use algeria or so. >> foreign minister. >> and i use algeria in our struggle against the french. and also in the civil war we had in the '90s. you know, when that, those elections were going to bring islamists to comment on the-- army refused that. the it was stopped and we had ten years of civil war. >> there is something also called a bind owe of unit. >> sure. >> how wide is that? how big is that window of opportunity in order to do something or all else is lost? >> yeah. it's not very wide but windows of opportunity, it
12:44pm
never closes completely. there is always a ray of light. >> but that remains there. and that is what makes people like me say it is an almost impossible mission. but not quite impossible. >> do the window of opportunity is not very wide in syria but it is there. and you see it from the time i have tarted-- started to started today, i see that there is much more opportunity then i thought there were originally. >> why? >> because i have you know i'm a little bit more familiar with the place. i have seen a lot of people inside sirria. i have seen people without are opposed to them. i have seen what is going to happen to the region. if this continues. lay out that scenario, what happens to the region.
12:45pm
one of, the destruction of a country you talked about. how does it impact across the borders of syria. >> sure, yeah, look, lebanon today already their foreign minister tells me that they have lost 600,000 tourists this summer. short of 600,000. that did not come. one-third of their exports are, have gone. this is before anything has happened refugees are streaming into jordan and turkey. >> and lebanon, lebanon, they close their eyes. they don't want to count them within people go and come, go and come, they have at least 120,000. real refugee, real refugees as opposed to those who have money, relatives and so on and go to lebanon all the
12:46pm
same. this is one thing. jordan, how are they going to resist, to-- they have about 200,000 now if another, i told you, from 400,000 now, to 700,000 in january or february and what ri going to have is war lords, traffickers, and all sores of-- i mean terrorists, fundamentalists, are you going to have a free-for-all inside syria that necessarily will spin over in all countries, turkey, iraq jor on and lebanon. even israel will not be completely safe from it in syria. >> what would cause outside
12:47pm
sources to say we're no longer going to take a hands-off attitude and take a hands on attitude by getting involved engaged on the ground. >> i hope we don't get there because military intervention is at best, at very best a very, very risky thing. you don't want them, you don't want intervention a la afghan strap, or libia. and i think, i really think you don't need that. because in the present circumstances will you have that outside of security council because are you to the going to have a resolution that will allow military intervention. that's out of the question for the moment. so you have to do it from outside. if you do it from outside you'll have a lot of opposition to it from day one. and it is look, libya is 6
12:48pm
million people. they had no army practically. and you see the amount of destruction that has taken place. you see how long it took and you see the results. so people a lot of people in syria, i think why not lib yament and they are warneddering why the americans and others don't want to repeat. we don't want to repeat. >> but the french don't say that. or do they say the same thing. >> i don't know. >> i don't know. >> the french have recognized. >> recognized. >> recognizing is fine. that is all -- >> dow encoverage that and they are recognized as the oppositionment recognizing something as the soul representative of the syrian
12:49pm
people is something that needs to be -- >> what about these two things. suppose assad would say i realize i am the problem, me personally. and i am also a patriot. not withstanding that i have done these awful things in my name on syrians have died and a country is destroyed. i'm going to allow a government here to negotiate and i'm leaving. he's unlikely to say that, if he says that. if he said that we will be in business completely. >> meetly so, why isn't the effort to say the russians get assad out pov we are. i think what they are saying. >> that is a nonstarter, isn't it. >> it is shall did -- it is not our business to replace governments. >> that is fair.
12:50pm
and that is from my point of view. >> they have their own reason to ynt want to say that. >> even, from my point of view it is good. we don't want people going and changing governments and so on. but what i tell everybody who talk os to bash har is it is your duty to share with him your analysis. if you agree with me that change is indispensable you've got to tell him and this is not interverns this is what i tell him. when i talk to him, extremely politably, set president of a country that i am trying to work with and help if i can. very, very politely and very respectfully. change is needed. so if you are russia, china,
12:51pm
iran, you know, brazil, whoever, if you share this view, it is your duty to share that analysis with bashar and everybody else. >> do you think the russians can make that analysis? >> i think so to him. >> that, i don't knowment but i think they are not very far making at nal sis that i make. >> is that progress though? >> or has it been prepared to do that. is that some fact that you and-- have had some impact in all these dialogues so that the russians are prepared to make that judgement? >> their analysis is -- >> next time you have-- here you ask him, will tell you. >> you told you but you don't feel free to tell me. >> i don't speak on his behalf because i am afraid i will not be faithful enough
12:52pm
in giving you all the nuances of his position. >> but when you say it to me. >> what i repeat to you is that talking to all these people, members of the security council at least at the level of foreign minister, i'm encouraged to see that their position is not really very far from one another. >> let me be sure i understand that. >> position of. >> of the members of the security colin. >> is not very far from one another. and that is why i am saying please give yourself a chance to work out the little differences that still exist between you. and that you must do it because there is no time. and the situation is so very bad. it does not serve the interest of anybody. doesn't serve the interests of the syrians.
12:53pm
doesn't serve the interests of every single of their neighbors. it doesn't serve the interests of russia. it doesn't serve the interests of america. the situation has got to be taken charge of through a political process. that political process can come only from the security council. >> the only path is through the security council. >> i think so, yes. >> no other way? >> you know, look, there will be another way tomorrow, but as i told you f there is no syria, then what do you want to do with this new path. and syria is being destroyed a little bit every . >> it a time for political courage, isn't it. >> yes, and you know, not a lot. just a little bit of courage
12:54pm
will dot trick. >> rose: thank you for coming. >> thank you for having me. >> rose: when dow go back? >> i'm going to washington on friday to tas to secretary of state or whoever you talk to. >> yeah, uh-huh. >> and then i head back to cairo. where i am going to be speaking with president morsi. >> yeah. thank you. >> thank you very much. >> rose: thank you for joining us. see you next time.
12:55pm
>> funding has been provided by the coca-cola company supporting this program since 2002. >> and american express. additional funding provided by these funders.
12:56pm
>> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide.
12:57pm
12:58pm
12:59pm
>> have you ever wished for perfect health or dreamed about living a long, vibrant life filled with all the things you love to do? well, i've gotreat news for you. in this show, i am going to share with you the secret cause of most all chronic disease. >> male announcer: internationally renowned digestive care expert and best-selling author, brenda